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As President (Joe) Biden is reminding everyone who will listen, gasoline prices in the United States have been falling for 50 days straight. A debate has been raging over exactly how much demand for gasoline has fallen, but it certainly appears to have been one of the weakest driving seasons ever. Now, as prices fall, the question all analysts are asking themselves is whether demand will bounce back, sending gasoline prices soaring again. President Biden recently boasted on Twitter that gasoline prices in the United States have been falling for 50 days straight, noting this was the fastest decline in a decade. The President added a sort of infographic to his tweet informing us that 50 percent of gas stations sold gasoline for $3.99 or less a gallon. What he forgot to mention was that demand for gasoline has been behaving very unnaturally for this time of year. Standard Chartered this week released a commodity alert that said that this year, driving season in the U.S. never really materialised. The report noted substantial demand declines for both June and July, adding, however, that the recent price decline should result in a pick-up in demand this month. There has been a lot of talk about the cure for higher oil prices being higher prices still. It appears this might have happened in the U.S. as prices for gasoline earlier this year hit the highest level in several decades. And the national average is still above $4 per gallon, maccording to AAA. No wonder then, with inflation raging on, people are opting not to drive, which is affecting demand. According to StanChart data, in July, gasoline demand in the U.S. dropped by 7.6 percent on the year to 8.592million barrels daily, which, the report noted, was the lowest demand level since 1997 except for the lockdown-heavy 2020. The Energy Information Administration, however, had a different data interpretation. According to that interpretation, the above gasoline demand figure was as much as 1million bpd lower than demand during the lockdown-stricken July of 2020. Bloomberg’s observation about gasoline demand trends made a splash on Twitter, prompting a lot of analysts to weigh in on the discussion of whether it is possible that this year’s driving season could have been worse for gasoline demand than the lockdown summer of 2020. Different datasets were noted in the debates, such as GasBuddy’s, which reported a slight increase in demand last week, for example. GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan noted the different methodologies of measuring demand and one very, perhaps the most, important difference in these methodologies. The EIA uses what it calls implied demand or, per its report, “product supplied” by refiners to fuel retailers, while GasBuddy works with the amount of gasoline actually sold by fuel stations. Some accused the EIA of skewing the numbers. Others noted that the weekly numbers for demand are flawed and that errors have been made in the past, too, leading to the wrong estimate for July demand. While the debates continue, one thing nobody is arguing about is that U.S. drivers are driving less, and even the 50-day straight price decline has not been enough to motivate them to start driving more, that during the season when everyone travels more, normally. The StanCart analysts noted in their report that “The average US price of retail gasoline has fallen by more than USc 80 per gallon (16%) since the mid-June peak, which should support demand in August. “However, we think the theory that the US market will bear gasoline prices of USD 5 per gallon for an extended period has now been tested to its destruction.” Indeed, whether or not demand for gasoline was lower this July than in July 2020 is not as relevant as the answer to the question of why, despite such a stable and continued decline in prices, Americans are not driving more. The most obvious answer would be, of course, inflation. Economists, government officials, and journalists are debating the definition of recession, whether or not the presence of a recession on the United States’ books isrelevant to anything, and whether the current situation is not a masked form of economic growth. In the meantime, the actual prices of actual goods and services are rising. As prices rise, consumption begins to dip. The longer prices rise, the more consumption would dip unless income is adjusted accordingly, which doesn’t seem to be happening yet. Gasoline, as a fundamental commodity that pretty much everyone uses in one form or another, is no exception. May and especially June saw all-time highs in gasoline prices. It was a matter of time before these record-high prices began to hurt demand, leading to lower consumption and, consequently, lower prices. It is, therefore, questionable how much credit for the 50-day price decline in gasoline the Biden administration could reasonably claim. They did not exactly open more refineries or stimulate more oil drilling – and even if they had, it would have taken time to get that new production to the market. It was largely marketforces that led to the lower prices. And also to lower consumption that may or may not have been even lower than consumption during the lockdown summer of 2020. Now, with prices lower, demand will very likely start picking up, as suggested by GasBuddy’s real-life data. The more important question then would be how long it will be until prices start climbing up again amid extra-strong exports of both gasoline and diesel. Slav reports for Oilprice.com
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A mini-van conveying suspected illegally refined Automotive Gasoline Oil, popularly known as diesel, caught fire on Tuesday along Woji Road, GRA Phase 2, Port Harcourt. The incident, which occurred near a popular shopping centre, Market Square, inside the new Port Harcourt GRA, caused heavy traffic jam in the area as the Police cordoned off a section of the road. Eyewitnesses told our correspondent that the fire explosion which occured around 4pm on Tuesday, began when a part of the the mini-van laden with AGO concealed in sacks, burst into flames after spilling some of its contents. The fire also affected a refuse disposal truck, an electric pole, and other nearby properties, as motorists scampered for safety. An eyewitness identified as Imoh said the fire was eventually put out through efforts of the fire service operatives and some passersby, while Mobile Policemen were at the scene to prevent people from scooping unburnt products from the van. According to him, “We were all here, when it started. The driver was struggling with something, I think a spark. There were sacks of diesel inside. “The next thing the driver came down and ran away. Immediately there was a large sound and it was fire. Then the fire caught this waste truck here,” the eyewitness explained. Meanwhile, efforts to get security agencies in the state to comment on the development proved abortive, as the Public Relations Officer of NSCDC, Ayodeji Olufemi, said he would get back to us but never did, while the Police Public Relations Officer, Grace Koko, did not take her calls nor replied to text messages sent to her phone.
President of the Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP), Mr. Fegalo Nsuke, has called on Shell Petroleum Development Company (Shell) Joint Venture (JV), the oil and gas multinational company, to take full responsibility and appropriate action to curb a fresh oil spill in Bodo Community, Gokana Local Government Area of Rivers State. Nsuke, who noted that the spill was first noticed in the community early last week, blamed Shell for the spill and urged the Dutch multinational to alleviate its impact on the community, curtail its spread and commence proper remediation and compensation in accordance with global best practices. The MOSOP leader noted that the oil spills from the Trans Niger Pipeline operated by the Shell JV, suddenly erupted within the residential area of the community, alleging that it must have been caused by equipment failure. He observed that although the cause of the spills, which was occurring 11years after the release of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) reports, was yet to be ascertained, the spills have affected residential areas and community dwellers have been asked by the MOSOP to evacuate the area, to avoid causality in case of a fire. “This massive spill is occurring 11 years after the UNEP released a damning report exposing Shell’s devastation of the Ogoni environment. “We have communicated with community leaders to cooperate with investigations and ensure that every detail about this spill is communicated to our secretariat as soon as possible”, he said. On his part, Executive Director, Youths and Environmental Advocacy Centre (YEAC), Fyneface Dumnamene Fyneface, said, “the cause of the crude oil spill which occurred inside the community where people live is not yet known at this time.”
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has berated the Federal Government for blaming marketers on the hike in the pump price of premium motor spirits, accusing the government of lying to the public. Recall that Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva, had said that any increase in the price of petrol has been at the instance of petroleum marketers, insisting the government has not removed fuel subsidy, and was unaware of filling stations selling PMS above N165. Speaking at a stakeholders’ consultation forum on regulations organised by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Sylva said the government was still paying subsidies on petrol, adding that marketers should be blamed for increase in fuel pump price. Reacting on the development, marketers under the aegis of IPMAN said the Federal Government was not telling Nigerians the truth. IPMAN Chairman in Rivers State, Dr Joseph Obele, said PPMC, a subsidiary of NNPC Ltd, was the sole importer of petroleum products into the country, and was only distributing to private depots and tankfarms with no plans for government depots. Obele said marketers were currently buying one at N169 per litre at the depot, saying that marketers were retailing products strictly based on the buying rate from the government. He warned the government against lying to the citizens but to fix the nation’s four refineries to operate at optimal capacity, saying that Nigerians would buy products at less than N100 per litre, if the refineries are working. “The Minister is not telling Nigerians the truth. For instance, we have 19 tankfarms in Rivers State. Only three is selling for PPMC, which is government. The three tank farms doesn’t have right of importation. “The sole importer of petroleum products in Nigeria is PPMC. PPMC imports and distribute to tank farms or private Depots across the states in Nigeria. They have refused to allocate any to Government owned depots, hence Government owned depots are without activities. “The reason is because, they can’t adjust price at government owned depots. They will mandate private depots to sell for them claiming they are not aware of the increment by private depots. If they are sincere, they should send the vessels to government-owned depots and not private depots. “Marketers are buying N169 per liter as at yesterday from the private tank farms, those depots are selling PPMC product which is government imported products. “The recent increment on the price of PMS is government strategy to reduce the huge burden of imported landing cost of PMS which is far above the approved template by the government.
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